Indonesien
Marktbeobachtungen der LBBW Repräsentanz Jakarta – September 2009
- The central bank Bank Indonesia has decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 6.50% level after easing 300 bps since December 2008. This offers ample support for the economic recovery process and bank intermediation. This level is also deemed to be consistent with the achievement of the inflation target in 2010 set at around 5%.
- The banking system is showing improved response to monetary relaxation with steady expansion in bank lending and progressive adjustment in bank lending rates. The banking liquidity is also no longer tight. At the micro level, the banking industry is in stable condition with a robust capital adequacy (CAR) at 17% and subdued NPLs at below 5%. Commitments by some banks to lower their deposit rates are expected to prompt further reduction in loan interest rates alongside increased bank lending.
- The bank lending expansion by end of July 2009 has been growing in average by 14% compared to the same period of last year. This growth was supported mostly by state owned banks, which have increased their lending target for this year.
- Fitch Rating noted that profitability at several of its rated large to mid-sized Indonesian banks have remained generally strong in 2008 and 1H09, and their pre-provision profits should be able to absorb the increase in credit costs as loan quality deteriorates in 2009 and possibly into 2010. Fitch Rating also expects the extent of deterioration in NPLs to be moderate with the Indonesian economy expected to post positive albeit weaker GDP growth. This underpins the Stable Outlook on the ratings for most Indonesian banks rated by Fitch.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2009 was inflated 0.56% compared to previous month due to price increases of several commodities, so that the YoY inflation rate was 2.75% and the inflation rate from January to August 2009 was 1.22%.
- The Indonesian export value for 1H09 has dropped by 28.94% to US$50.02 billion compared to the same period of previous year. However, as the import value for 1H09 has also dropped to US$41.39 billion, there is still a surplus of US$8.62 billion. The export down trend is expected to continue until year end by 15% - 20%.
- The Indonesian GDP in 2Q09 has grown by 2.3% compared to 1Q09 and by 4% yoy, and by 4.2% in 1H09.
- PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) is still the best performers among the 10 biggest banks in Indonesia with a 24% profit growth in the 1H09, followed by PT Bank Central Asia, PT Bank Mandiri and PT Bank Negara Indonesia. BRI provides lending 80% to micro, small and medium enterprises and the rest to corporations and consumers loan.
