Ukraine parliament voted to dismiss the governmentafter the gas price deal with Russia. A no confidence motion was backedby 250 deputies in the 450-seat parliament. The government with primeminister Yekhanurov was established in September, after theTymoshenko-led government was sacked by president Yushchenko. Primeminister Yekhanurov tried to defend the deal with Russia in a speech inthe parliament. Yekhanurov will remain as acting prime minister until anew premier is named by president Yushchenko and approved by theparliament.
Market reaction and outlook
Eurobonds dropped after the message was released by Reuters.USD/UAH has remained unchanged at 5.06. The National Bank of Ukraine(NBU) had to intervene two times (the NBU sold USD) after the gas pricedeal with Russia.
The decision of the parliament is supporting our view that the UAHwill come under pressure after the gas price deal and before theelections in March this year. The uncertainties before the electionshave increased and it could be that international investors will becautious for the time being. The solid current account and particularlythe net FDI inflows were responsible for the strong fundamentalposition of the Ukraine in 2005, but this has now significantlychanged. RZB forecast is that USD/UAH will rise towards 5.20 untilMarch.
Market reaction and outlook
Eurobonds dropped after the message was released by Reuters.USD/UAH has remained unchanged at 5.06. The National Bank of Ukraine(NBU) had to intervene two times (the NBU sold USD) after the gas pricedeal with Russia.
The decision of the parliament is supporting our view that the UAHwill come under pressure after the gas price deal and before theelections in March this year. The uncertainties before the electionshave increased and it could be that international investors will becautious for the time being. The solid current account and particularlythe net FDI inflows were responsible for the strong fundamentalposition of the Ukraine in 2005, but this has now significantlychanged. RZB forecast is that USD/UAH will rise towards 5.20 untilMarch.
Letzte Änderung: 10.01.2006 durch Klaus Bleibaum
